Tagged with: PayDirt

Jul 2013 - Gold Prices

What Should the Gold Price Actually be ?

Following the ~$200/oz fall in the gold price from ~US$1570/oz in early April 2013 to ~$1380/oz one week later, there has been yet another US$200/oz fall in the gold price more recently over two weeks (based on London pm gold price fixes) from $1391/oz on 14 June to $1292/oz on 21 June and $1192/oz on 28 June. Leaving many wondering just what should the gold price actually be ?

Aug 2013 - China's Demand

Don't underestimate China's Demand

It's almost as if the market wants China's growth to fail, jumping on any signs of weakness and knocking down commodity prices. It seems to pounce on HSBC's pmi (purchasing managers index) forecasts which have been shown to be wildly inaccurate by up to 2 points as in the June 2013 figures showing slowing down at 48.2 whereas the actual figure when later released was over 50 (50.1, seen as growth).

Sep 2013 - Against AISC

Against the AISC

Since its introduction by the WGC (World Gold Council) the proposed AISC (All in sustaining cash cost) method appears to have spread confusion and damaged share prices such as Silver Lake (SLR.ax) who were one of the first Australian gold companies to adopt it in their March Quarterly 2013.

Oct 2013 - Cutting Costs

Innovatively Cutting Costs

The fall in the gold price has caused gold producers to focus on cutting costs, in exploration, corporate, staff, and anything else. However, it has also resulted in a few innovations that we/ERA have not seen before, most of which we saw in our August 2013 visit to Silver Lake's operations, such as LNG power, contractor vending machines and a mini de-sal(ination) plant as shown in Figure.

Dec 2013 - Gold and Money

Gold and the Business of Making Money

Most Chinese gold company presenters were bearish at the China Mining 2013 Conference held in Tianjin in early November 2013, believing that gold would probably trade between $1200 and $1400 (or $1500/oz) for the next 2 years. CRU were more bearish, perceiving gold to trade at ~$1200/oz in 2017 (becoming effectively $1130/oz in real money terms).

Dec 2013 - Supercycle

The Supercycle is not over yet !

Or at least that was the comment made by at least 3 of the Chinese presenters in the commodity sessions spread over 4 days of the China Mining 2013 Conference held in Tianjin in early November 2013.

Feb 2014 - Misleading GDP?

GDP Numbers Misleading?

The equities markets took a material tumble in early February 2014, citing signs of China slowing down, with its official PMI figure down by 0.5 from 51.0 to 50.5 when it was released on 1 Feb (still mirroring the earlier HSBC estimates that are 1.0 lower, and which fell from 50.0 to 49.5)

Jun 2014 - Market Bottomed?

Has the Resource Market Bottomed Yet ?

The question as to whether the resource market has bottomed yet (or not) has occupied most of the conferences that I have attended so far this year (2014). At all of those conferences (RIU Freo in February, RIU Sydney in May and Symposium Broken Hill in May), the "mood" has been upbeat.

Jul 2014 - Gold Road Patience

Patience has reaped major rewards for Gold Road starting with Gruyere

In the past month (since ~ May 28) there has been a significant rebound in some of the gold stocks to 1 July such as Silver Lake (SLR.ax) up 67% from 33c to 55c and Gold Road (GOR.ax) doubling from 15c to trade at 30c.

Aug 2014 - Viable PGE Orebody

Has Sirius discovered Australia's first viable PGE orebody?

Following up a known historical intersection by Anaconda in the 1970s of ~23m @ 0.56%Ni (incl 2.1m @ 1.27%Ni & 0.13%Cu), Sirius "hit the jackpot" with their first drillhole at their Taipan prospect on the Polar Bear peninsular of Lake Cowan. That drillhole (SPBD0046) had an intersection from 104.4m of 4.1m @ 3.8%Ni, 2.45%Cu & 0.08%Co and 0.89g/tPt + 1.60g/tPd (incl from 106m of 2.15m @ 5.84%Ni, 3.73%Cu, 0.12%Co & 1.10g/tPt + 1.65g/tPd).

Aug 2014 - Australia's New Age

Australia's New Golden Age of Discovery

In his presentation at Diggers 2014, Evolution's Jake Klein showed a figure of gold discoveries over the period from 1990 to 2013, under the caption "Gold discoveries increasingly rare". The figure showed that ~>40mozpa was being discovered from 2001 to 2009, and then only ~15moz in 2010 and 2011, and since then almost nothing.

Sep 2014 - Struggle for Control

The Struggle between East and West for Control of the Gold Price

After Diggers, the gold price fell in ~6 weeks by over US$100/oz from ~$1320/oz to ~$1210/oz by 22 September 2014, and fortunately the A$ fell too, currently at ~US$0.89, which has cushioned some of the blow for the Australian gold producers.

Nov 2014 - China Taking Control

China appears to have taken control of the commodity price markets

..through actions or words, that has mostly resulted in lower commodity prices with the two most obvious examples being gold and iron ore.

Dec 2014 - Waiting Leisurely

"Wait leisurely for an exhausted enemy"

I first heard this "article of war" in a clca presentation by Leonie Mckeon on doing business in China, at the Symposium Conference in Broken Hill in May 2012, (contained in an earlier issue of Paydirt) and did not really appreciate its significance until now.

Mar 2015 - Rags to Riches

Rags to Riches

Stewart McDonald opened his RIU/Vertical Events packed Explorers' Conference in Fremantle in late February 2015 to an audience of ~750 delegates, optimistically proclaiming that the commodity bear market is over, the commodity boom has restarted again.